WhiteDwarf

I suddenly felt the urge, so I opened my laptop. This is a story I haven't been able to bring myself to tell until now—a raw, unfiltered piece. It’s a collection of worst-case scenarios that made me think, "Wait, something is off here," while I was writing articles. Written in one sitting, zero editing. I’m just going to write comfortably. Hyperscalers’ Debt-Fueled Investing: A Ticking Time Bomb Hyperscale capital expenditure (CapEx) was $357.5 billion last year. This year, it’s projected to reach $604.7 billion. In Korean Won, that’s 540 trillion and 911 trillion won, respectively. All of this astronomical amount of money is being poured into building data centers. They are dumping cash into erecting buildings, buying AI GPUs, DRAM, HBM, and energy storage systems (ESS), and laying down power equipment and cables. Their strategy is to go all-in right now and recoup everything later with AI. Next year’s CapEx estimate increases even further to between $900 billion and $1 ...

 Now, lastly, we have Hyundai Rotem. Hyundai Rotem operates in a slightly different territory compared to LIG D&A, KAI, and Korean Air, which I introduced in previous posts. While those three specialize in aerial warfare like missiles and fighter jets, Hyundai Rotem's main focus is the tank—the prince of land warfare. Their flagship lineup includes the K-2 Black Panther main battle tank, wheeled armored vehicles, obstacle-clearing tanks, K1/K1A1 tanks, and armored recovery/bridge vehicles. As you might have guessed, tanks have historically garnered more spotlight in the Russia-Ukraine war than in Middle Eastern conflicts. This means their main customers have been European nations. Recently, however, that pattern has been changing a bit. It appears they are set to diversify their export destinations beyond Europe and into the Middle East. Earlier, I explained that Middle Eastern warfare primarily revolves around fighter jets and airstrikes. But there is one blind spot to this: y...

If Hanwha Aerospace skyrocketed due to the Russia-Ukraine war, LIG Defense & Aerospace (formerly LIG Nex1) is a company that grabbed attention due to the U.S.-Iran war. Their main customers differ as well; while Hanwha Aerospace focuses on European countries bordering Russia, LIG D&A targets Middle Eastern countries adjacent to Iran. The reason is simple. The weapons manufactured by the two companies are entirely different. As mentioned in my previous post, LIG D&A hit the jackpot with 'Cheongung-2' (M-SAM). Iran fired an immense number of missiles at the UAE, and Cheongung-2 intercepted almost all of them. According to UAE Ministry of Defense data, the UAE air defense batteries equipped with Cheongung-2 hit 486 out of 507 Iranian ballistic missiles (95.9%), 24 out of 24 cruise missiles (100%), and 2,101 out of 2,191 drones (95.9%). Securities analysts even worry about whether LIG D&A's supply of Cheongung-2 can keep up with the demand, as requests from Midd...

Hanwha Aerospace is my absolute favorite company and the definition of romance itself. I should have bought it when the stock price was around 700,000 to 800,000 KRW per share. Now that it has surged well over 1,000,000 KRW, I can't even dare to buy it. It breaks my heart... First of all, Hanwha Aerospace is virtually the only company in South Korea that covers the Army, Navy, and Air Force all together. For ground firepower weapons, their flagship products include missiles, self-propelled howitzers, tanks, and rockets. Its subsidiary, Hanwha Systems, and Satrec Initiative are even developing and manufacturing reconnaissance satellites and radars, establishing a complete surveillance system. Another subsidiary, Hanwha Ocean, builds naval ships. They have even expanded into the space market now. It was Hanwha Aerospace that oversaw the production and launch of the recently launched Nuri rocket. Preparing Against Europe and the Russian Invasion Hanwha Aerospace's stock price bega...

Since I am a journalist in charge of the stock market, I must look into the KOSPI and KOSDAQ markets every day. I have to deliver the news to you, the readers, about which stocks rose or fell every time the market opens at 9:00 AM and closes at 3:30 PM. However, there have been some very interesting stocks lately. These are sectors that fall alone when everyone else is rising, and rise alone when everyone else is falling. These are the defense industries—companies that sell weapons. The reason is simple: war.  Normally, when a war breaks out, the stock market tends to crash. People try to avoid the uncertainty caused by war and gather safe assets like the US dollar and gold. In other words, since they don't know what will happen next, they move their money into assets with less volatility. In that process, funds invested in risky assets like stocks pour out like an ebbing tide, and stock prices drop. This US-Iran war took place on February 27–28, Korea time. The KOSPI, which had be...

Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix perform rigorous inspections after semiconductor production to ensure quality, as defective units cannot be delivered to Nvidia or other clients. This process is categorized as back-end processing, specifically the final test after packaging. Since it prevents wasting all the previous efforts, it is arguably the most critical stage. Essential components for semiconductor testing include pogo pins and test sockets. Semiconductors are placed into sockets connected to testing equipment to diagnose any anomalies. A socket contains numerous pogo pins, which transmit electrical signals between the chip and the socket to verify functionality. These pins are consumables that must be replaced after repeated use. As AI demand drives higher semiconductor production, sales for these parts naturally increase. Furthermore, high-performance chips require intensive verification during development, increasing the frequency and difficulty of testing. These chips demand a...

Let’s review what we covered last time. HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) made by Samsung Electronics and SK hynix goes into Nvidia’s AI GPUs. Nvidia’s AI GPUs are needed in hyperscalers’ data centers. As hyperscalers increase their investment in AI, demand for HBM from Samsung Electronics and SK hynix rises, and both companies’ earnings grow. In other words, the memory semiconductor supercycle follows the structure of “Samsung Electronics · SK hynix → Nvidia → hyperscalers.” But beneath Samsung Electronics and SK hynix, there are numerous other companies connected. These are the so-called “materials, parts, and equipment” companies, or “MPE (SoBuJang in Korean).” They supply the materials, parts, and equipment needed to produce HBM. Let’s look at an example. As mentioned before, HBM is made by stacking multiple DRAM chips. Obviously, you can’t just stack DRAM like Lego blocks and call it HBM. You need to press them together using equipment called a “bonder” (Bonder comes from the word “bon...

Hyperscalers' Capex to Slow in 2027... Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix Earnings to Take a Step Backward in 2028 AI facility investment (Capex) by the four major hyperscalers is skyrocketing by the day. This year alone, it is expected to reach approximately 890 trillion KRW, or 604.7 billion USD. This massive amount of money is being spent on AI data centers and the necessary GPUs and HBMs. This figure has tripled in just two years, up from 357.5 billion USD last year and 217.3 billion USD the year before. This is exactly why the operating profits of NVIDIA, which sells GPUs to them, and Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, which sell HBMs, have surged. Naturally, the performance and stock prices of NVIDIA, Samsung Electronics, and SK Hynix will be linked to how much these four companies invest in the future. Of course, investment is expected to increase to 674.6 billion USD in 2027. However, the problem lies in the fact that the growth scale of that investment is gradually shrinking....

​Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix account for 40% of the total market capitalization of the KOSPI. Over the past year, their stock prices have skyrocketed by 303.85% and 574%, respectively. You’ve probably heard that this is "thanks to the AI Super-Cycle." However, surprisingly few people understand exactly what that means or why it has driven these stock prices so high. It’s actually quite simple. Just keep this structure in mind: ​'Samsung/Hynix → NVIDIA → Microsoft/Meta/Google/Amazon' ​1. The Top of the AI Cycle: Microsoft, Meta, Google, and Amazon ​We are living in an era where everyone uses AI. To use AI, a massive amount of computation and data processing is required. When you send a request to ChatGPT, your smartphone doesn't process it directly. Your request travels through the internet to a massive "computer factory" called an AI Data Center located somewhere in the world. The giant servers in that factory handle the complex calculations and rec...

  Welcome to my blog. I am a financial journalist based in South Korea with years of experience covering the heartbeat of the Korean economy—including banking, financial holding companies, insurance, credit cards, foreign exchange markets, and monetary policy. ​About a year ago, I transitioned to the Securities Department. Since then, I have been analyzing major stocks on the KOSPI, KOSDAQ, and U.S. stock markets, with a particular focus on the intricate interconnections between these two markets. ​I created this blog to share insightful, real-time analysis of the South Korean market with a global audience. ​I’ll start with the essentials—broken down simply. We’ll explore why Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix stock prices are surging, why memory semiconductors are currently in the spotlight, and how the memory cycle flows down to materials, components, and equipment (Sojangbu) companies. ​Moving forward, I will also dive into the mechanisms of diverse sectors, including Defense, Sec...